Evidence / 2025
The changing prevalence of ADHD? A systematic review
Martin AF, et al. (2025). Journal of Affective Disorders.
- Population
- Children, adolescents and adults in studies reporting ADHD prevalence or incidence over time
- Sample
- Forty studies across 17 countries, with one study spanning 42 countries
- Condition
- ADHD prevalence and incidence over time
- Medication focus
- Not a treatment trial
- Jurisdiction
- International
- Last reviewed
- 2 September 2026
- Measurement period
- Studies as reviewed; paper epub 18 May 2025; Journal of Affective Disorders 388:119427
- PMID
- 40393551
- DOI
- 10.1016/j.jad.2025.119427
Plain-language finding
Following PRISMA and SWiM guidelines, the authors reviewed forty studies across 17 countries. No significant rise in ADHD prevalence was found. The highest-quality findings did not suggest an increase in prevalence since 2020, while incidence showed some variability during the COVID-19 pandemic. Only four included studies were at low risk of bias.
Important limitation
The authors report substantial limitations in the quality of the included literature, significant delays in reporting prevalence data, a lack of healthcare data, and no school-level data. This is not an Australian census. It does not prove that prevalence is static; it shows that a sudden increase in underlying prevalence is not currently established by the highest-quality evidence.
Why we cite this
The most useful recent synthesis for the claim that rising recognition, demand and treatment are observable while a sudden rise in underlying ADHD prevalence is not currently established.
adhd · misinformation · access · service-design
Research demonstrates a statistical relationship. Association is not causation. Timing, dose, confounding and missing data still matter.
Claims this source supports
Rising ADHD diagnosis and medicine dispensing in Australia are evidence of rising recognised demand. They are not, by themselves, evidence that underlying ADHD prevalence has increased by the same factor. Prevalence, recognition, diagnosis and service demand are different quantities.
This claim retains disagreement in the literature. Open the classification to read both sides.
Last reviewed 2 September 2026
More people being recognised is observable. More people seeking assessment is observable. More people receiving ADHD medication is observable. A sudden increase in the underlying prevalence of ADHD since 2020 is not currently established.
This claim retains disagreement in the literature. Open the classification to read both sides.
Last reviewed 2 September 2026